Conspiracy Theories

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Introductory Discussion Questions

What are conspiracy theories? What are their common elements?
Do you have a favorite conspiracy theory?
Are there conspiracy theories you believe/disbelieve?
Are there similarities amongst people who believe in conspiracy theories?
How are conspiracy theories different from established or scientific theories?
Is the earth round? How do you know?

What are Conspiracy Theories?

Definitions

Merriam Webster Dictionary defines a conspiracy theroy as “a theory that explains an event or set ofcircumstances as the result of a secret plot by usually powerful conspirators.” Another definition given by Matthew Dentith is “an explanation of an event that cites the existence of a conspiracy as a salient cause”

Common elements

In his article conspiracy theories in politics published in the New York Times, Michael Barkann recognizes several common elements of conspiracy theories. He writes that most conspiracy theories rest on the belief that a covert, malevolent Group is intentionally suppressing information about an event or circumstance.

Most conspiracy theories also rest on the believe that the universe is governed by design and embody three primary principles.

Nothing happens by accident
Nothing is as it seems
Everything is connected

And it's important to note that the term conspiracy theory does not imply that the claim is necessarily false. Saying “oh, that’s just a conspiracy theory!” is not a very good argument because it merely dismisses the claim rather than argues against the possibility of its truth.

Conspiracy theory themes

There are some Common themes portrayed in most conspiracy theories. First, control. Many conspiracy theories relate to individual mind control of internal thoughts and external behaviors, collective social engineering, political control, and financial control. They also tend to relate to some hidden forces like religion or politics and the manipulation of reality.

Some common conspiracy theories include:

Flat Earth
Government hiding Alien secrets
Hollow Earth
Princess Diana murdered by The Royal Family
JFK’s assassination being an inside job
The world controlled by a Cabal e.g. the illuminati, the Rothschilds, etc.
Vaccines cause autism
Climate change is a hoax
Reality is a computer simulation
Politics controlled by lizard people
The Moon landing was a fake
Chemtrails
Holocaust was a hoax
Coronavirus is a hoax
Big Pharma has a cure for cancer

3 kinds of Conspiracy Theories

Michael Barkun, professor at Meredith's of science at Syracuse University, recognizes three general sorts of conspiracy theories. Barkun contends that most conspiracy theories can fit within one of these three groups.

First, there are event conspiracy theories. These are conspiracy theories that relate to a limited and well-defined event like the Kennedy assassination or September 11.

The second type of conspiracy theory identified by Barkun is systematic Conspiracy theories. These relate to conspiracy theories featuring broad goals of control but run by simple evil organizations like NASA, the freemasons, communists, the Catholic Church, the Jews, etc.

The third type of conspiracy theory identified by Barkun is what he calls super conspiracy theories. These super conspiracy theories link many conspiracy theories together, usually hierarchically, with all-powerful distant and evil forces. These include things like Q anon, the existence of reptilian humanoids controlling the world, the media manipulating the majority of reality, etc.

Belief in conspiracy theories

According to a 2018 study,

11% believe the US government allowed 9/11 to happen
36% believe that climate change is a hoax
15% believe in mind-control in TV broadcasts
51% believe that JFK was the victim of a larger conspiracy
28% believe that a “new world order” exists

Reasons to believe in conspiracy theories

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Studies have shown that belief in one conspiracy theory often indicates belief in many conspiracy theories. Some people believe in no conspiracy theories while others believe in many.

Are there legitimate reasons to believe in conspiracy theories?

Why believe in conspiracy theories?

There are many good reasons to believe in conspiracy theories. First of all, many conspiracy theories are intuitive. For instance, believe in flat earth. Our senses indicate to us that the earth is flat. And this was the mainstream belief amongst human beings until relatively recently. Science is growing ever increasingly more counterintuitive. Parisi theories also encourage healthy skepticism. It likely would not be beneficial for a democracy to refrain from questioning the main stream narrative. Also, in light of recent discoveries in the coverups of sexual abuse cases by clergy of the Catholic Church, sexual abuse cases by leaders of the Boy Scouts of America, leaks by Edward Snowden and Julian Assange, etc., ad nauseum, The public is increasingly distrusting institutions. In addition, modern technology allows for the collaboration between nefarious actors in a way never before possible. With an increase in the dissemination of information, most people are not aware that they are do exist some very powerful wealthy well-connected malevolent people. Also, many conspiracy theories are backed by lots of support and research. And there is a history of people in power gaining more power through mass manipulation.

More importantly, there have been many conspiracy theories that turned out to be true! For instance:

The FBI spying on MLK
The NSA spying on Americans
Lance Armstrong Dopin
CIA importing cocaine
Watergate
MK ultra

Flat Earth Theory

In short the flat earth theory contends that the earth is not a globe as most all of us have been taught in schools, but is in fact a flat disc. And, again, like most conspiracy theories, this is intuitive. We can see that the earth is a flat disc from an airplane window. Do you feel yourself spinning, wobbling, or gyrating? No. Because the earth is not a revolving sphere, but a flat disc. We are not able to observe the curving horizon, the sloping sea level, the spin of the earth, or any of the other scientific justifications for a spiritual earth. Because the intuitive position is that the earth is a flat disc, the onus of proof is not on Flat Earthers, but instead on Round Earthers.

The Flat Earth

Flat Earthers contend that the earth is not exactly a disk, but more like a snow globe, and all continents reside in the centre of this disk or snow globe. Although there is some debate over the existence of Australia. Most renderings of the flat earth show the north pole at the centre of the earth and Antarctica along full circumference of the earth.

The Ice Wall

Most flat Earthers contend that Antarctica is a giant ice wall surrounding the earth. The height of the ice wall is debated. Most believe that it's possible that more land exists beyond the ice wall, but we are unable to find out.

Gravity

Against Flat Eartherism, some Round Earthers argue that anything as massive as the earth, shaped like a flat disc, would, under its own gravity, naturally collapse back into a ball. To which flat Earthers respond that gravity is not real.

Round Earthers argue that gravity must be real because the ocean’s tides are caused by the moon. Flat Earthers argue that that tides are caused by a giant magnet at the center of the earth.

Round Earthers argue that gravity must be real. How else would objects stay fixed to earth? Flat Earthers rebuttal that objects stay fixed to the earth because the earth is moving upward through space like a rocketship at 9.8 meters per second

Photographs

Some Round Earthers argue that there is photographic evidence of the earth being round. Flat Earthers argue that Pictures of the earth from space (and the moonlanding) are fake. According to the Flat Earth Society’s homepage, “In general, we at the Flat Earth Society do not lend much credibility to photographic evidence. It is too easily manipulated and altered.” And we can’t get outside the ice-wall to get a real picture of the earth.

Nasa

Flat Earthers contend that NASA exists solely to perpetuate the globe lie. Humans have never actually been to space. Astronauts are actors. And this lie continues to be peddled by “Big Globe”, an assortment of industries who benefit from the lie, including Space Agencies, Airlines, and Governments. “The rockets go up, but there’s nobody in them.”

Who’s behind it?

Various resources claim that various nefarious actors are behind the globe conspiracy, including:

The Illuminati
The Bilderbergs
The Jesuits
The Freemasons
The Trilateral Commission
The Vatican
The Zionists
Satan

Pscyhology of conspiracy theorists

First, many people fall victim to believing in fake conspiracy theories When they are stuck inside an echo chamber. In the past, we would often fraternize with people who held vastly different political and social ideas. But today, we tend to surround ourselves, both in-person and online, with people who are like-minded, share similar values. Also, social media algorithms tend to feed us content that we already agree with. This forces us deeper and deeper and deeper down rabbit holes. Psychologists recognize a psychological phenomenon referred to as the backfire. Researchers have found that when our deepest convictions and beliefs are challenged by contradictory evidence, our beliefs often get stronger. There's also confirmation bias. This occurs when people give more weight to evidence supporting their existing beliefs and ignore evidence that contradicts their beliefs. Projection is an unconscious impulse to deny negative qualities in ourselves while attributing them to others, for example, if I am a liar I might deny being a liar but assume that those around me are lying. Lastly, the ability to believe in unfalsifiable claims.

The unfalsifiability fallacy

One of the most important logical fallacies to consider when exploring conspiracy theories is The Unfalsifiability Fallacy. According to Jack Bowen, Author of Bad Arguments, “The unfalsifiability fallacy occurs when someone makes a claim that is impossible to prove false. Falsifiability – the ability to be falsified or proven wrong – is considered a key criterion for deeming a hypothesis scientific.” For example, the claim, “I have 100,000 invisible, undetectable unicorns swimming in my blood” is unfalsifiable because there is no conceivable test that could prove or disprove this claim. We could look at my blood under a microscope, but the unicorns are invisible! We could attempt to invent a machine that detects unicorns, but, as mentioned in the claim, these unicorns are undetectable.

Most scientific claims are falsifiable (i.e. it is conceivable to present evidence that disproves the claim). Many conspiracy theories, though, are unfalsifiable, meaning there is no conceivable evidence that could disprove the belief. In regards to Flat Earth Theory, someone could argue “I have an astronaut friend who has told me about his time in space, and he saw that the earth is round.” But this could easily be dismissed as the astronaut is a paid actor. Someone could argue that airlines rely on the conception of the round earth to navigate. But this could be dismissed as the pilots are also paid actors. Photos of the round earth are claimed to be photoshopped. Meteorologists, satellite engineers, and astrophysicists are all lying. There is no conceivable evidence that could be presented to a Flat Earther that would convince them to reassess their beliefs.

So, when exploring new ideas and controversial theories, one important measure is to ask yourself and others what evidence could be produced that could possibly disprove their belief. If you or they are unable to conceive of any disproving evidence, this is a sign that you may be dealing with a false conspiracy theory.

Trauma

Many Conspiracy Theories relate to experiences of trauma. for instance 911, Princess Diana's death, JFK's assassination, or autism in children.

Lack of control

They also rise in response to situations where we feel out of control. A lack of control has been shown to activate the amygdala. The amygdala is the section of the brain responsible for processing fear anxiety and aggression. The amygdala is used to look for patterns and explanations.

The floss for Bertrand Russell famously stated "We do not seek truth. We seek certainty." And conspiracy theories certainly offer us a bit of certainty in a very uncertain world.

The American social psychologist Professor Adam Galinsky echos this saying, “The less control people have over their lives, the more likely they are to try and regain control through mental gymnastics. Feelings of control are so important to people that a lack of control is inherently threatening”

And the 1960s spiritual teacher and psychonaut Terrence McKenna once commented, “Isn’t it comforting to believe that the Jews are behind everything, or the Communist Party, or the Catholic Church, or the Masons… Well, these are epistemological cartoons. It’s kindergarten stuff in the art of amateur historiography. I believe that the truth of the matter is far more terrifying. That no one is in control.”

Proportionality bias

It's also worth considering the psychological phenomenon of personalities bias, which is the assumption that big events must have big causes. For example, JFK’s assassination by a single shooter feels unbalanced. The assassination of the President of the United States of America must have committed by a larger group of powerful actors.

pATTERN pROCESSING

Another psychological phenomenon that might contribute to the belief in false conspiracy theories is our ability to process patterns. For example, most humans see faces in inanimate objects. This is known as Pareidolia. There is no face here. But there appears to be a face because of our brain’s unique ability to process patterns. In fact, finding meaningful patterns in the world, making causal inferences, is one of humans’ greatest strengths. It is an automatic process of the mind. We can’t control whether or not we see a face in certain objects; we just see faces. Unfortunately, this ability can lead to the formulation of false patterns and cause us to create relationships between coincidental events that have no inherent relationship.

Personality traits

Researchers have found several personality traits common to most believers in conspiracy theories including:

Paranoia
Cynicism
Mistrust
Feelings of powerlessness
Anxiety
Grappling with uncertainty
And the tendency for people who believe in one conspiracy theory to believe in several or most conspiracy theories, even when these beliefs are logically inconsistent. For instance, the group of people who are most likely to believe that Princess Diana is still alive is the same group of people most likely to believe that Princess Diana’s death was an inside job.

Arguments against believing in conspiracy theories

Ramsey Theory

Ramsey Theory is a branch of mathematics studying the likelihood for some particular interesting pattern to emerge in a data set, given a large enough number of items in that data set. For instance, anyone’s phone number can be found in the digits of pi (3.141592…). Pi is an irrational number with a conceivably infinite number of decimals. Somewhere within this dataset, you will find your own phone number. This does not mean that your phone number was predicted by Pi or that you are destined to be a mathematician. There are so many clouds and so many stars, all in random configurations, it is expected that we find some shapes and patterns.. that focuses on the appearance of order in a substructure given a structure of a known size. Problems in Ramsey theory typically ask a question of the form: "how big must some substructure be to guarantee that a particular property holds?" More specifically, Ron Graham described Ramsey theory as a "branch of combinatorics".

In the text of Moby Dick, if the characters are arranged in a particular way, you can find the intersecting text-strings “M L King… to be killed by them.”

As well as “Lady Diana… foolishly wasted…. power and velocity… Dodi… these jaws of death” potentially relating to Princess Diana’s car crash, leading to her death. Of course Herman Melville was dead long before Princess Diana was born. He couldn’t have possibly predicted or conspired for her death. This is a mere coincidence.

In fact, based on probability, it would have been stranger if there weren’t codes embedded in Moby Dick, or any text for that matter.

As written by the Mathematician T.S. Motzkin, “While disorder is more probable in general, complete disorder is impossible.”

How does it stay secret?

Another common argument made against the possibility of conspiracy theories revolves around the likelihood that the conspiracy could possibly stay secret.

Oxford University Physicist David Robert Grimes argues that:

The more people involved in a conspiracy, the faster it will unravel. Professor Grimes calculated based on previous scandals that the chances that a conspirator would slip the truth on any day is roughly 1 in 250,000. Therefore, Grimes contends that a conspiracy of 2500 people would stay secret for 5 years at most. Now, NASA’s Apollo Mission employs 400,000. According to Grimes’ calculation, a fake moon landing could only stay secret for about 11 days.

Conspiracies and violence

There are real consequences of believing in conspiracies. For example:

The Boston Marathon bomber gave his landlord a copy of The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, a fake antisemitic book describing a Jewish protocol for world domination, saying 'this is a good book'
The Holocaust Memorial Guard killer wrote, “The Holocaust is a lie. Obama was created by Jews. Obama does what his Jew owners tell him to do. Jews captured American money. Jews control the mass media.”
The Oklahoma City bomber was concerned about the government and 'New World Order' and worried government was coming for our guns.
And the rise of 'lone-wolf' terrorism